The NBU Raises Rates Again — And Probably Not for the Last Time
On 17 September 2026, the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) decided to raise its key policy rate from 15.5% to 16% per annum. The new rate takes effect on 18 September 2026. The regulator's official wording is dry — "persistent fundamental price pressure, second-round effects from supply shocks, and intensifying medium-term pro-inflationary risks" — but behind it lies a very concrete trigger: inflation accelerated to 8.1% year-on-year in August 2026, exceeding even the NBU's own, already cautious, previous forecasts.
For most readers, "key policy rate" sounds like a term from an economics textbook, far removed from everyday life. In reality, it is one of the few macro indicators that reaches directly into your wallet — through deposit rates, loan rates, and mortgage payments. Let's break down in plain terms what happened and what to expect next.
What the Key Policy Rate Actually Is
The key policy rate is sometimes called "the price of money in the economy." It is the rate at which the central bank lends to commercial banks and accepts deposits from them. When the NBU raises this rate, money becomes more expensive for banks — and banks, in turn, pass that higher cost on to their customers: to you and me.
The mechanism works in two directions at once. On one hand, it becomes more attractive for banks to raise funds from the public through deposits, since those funds can then be placed with the NBU at a higher rate or lent out at higher rates themselves. This gradually pushes banks to raise deposit rates to attract more client money. On the other hand, loans themselves — consumer loans, mortgages, business loans — also become more expensive, because banks build the higher cost of funding into their lending rates.
In plain terms: raising the key rate is a signal to the entire banking system that "money is now more expensive," and the system gradually adjusts to this new benchmark over a lag of several weeks or even months.
Why the NBU Does This, Even Though It Hurts Borrowers
The regulator's logic looks paradoxical only at first glance: to curb rising prices, money needs to be made "more expensive," which cools consumer demand. When loans become pricier, households and businesses borrow more cautiously and spend less on credit, reducing aggregate demand in the economy. Lower demand means less pressure on prices. This is the classic inflation-targeting tool used by central banks worldwide, including the ECB and the US Federal Reserve.
In the NBU's case, the situation is complicated by the fact that August's 8.1% inflation figure significantly exceeded the regulator's own expectations. This means previous steps — rates had already been raised before — proved insufficient to contain price dynamics. It's not just about temporary factors, such as supply shocks from energy or logistics disruptions, but also "second-round effects," where businesses and households start building higher inflation expectations into their behavior: companies raise prices preemptively, and workers demand higher wages, further fueling the spiral.
That is precisely why the NBU is deliberately taking an unpopular step, raising rates despite the hit to borrowers. The alternative — letting inflation continue accelerating — would cause far greater long-term harm, eroding the savings and incomes of all Ukrainians.
What This Means for Your Savings
If you have a deposit, or are planning to open one, the rate hike is largely good news. Historically, banks respond to such NBU decisions with a slight delay, gradually revising terms on new deposits and sometimes offering higher rates on top-up or renewal programs. This doesn't happen instantly across the whole market, nor at the same pace at every bank — some will react faster, some slower, and some may wait to see how the situation develops.
If you're currently deciding where to put your money, it's worth not rushing to lock in funds for a long term under old conditions, but instead watching for updated offers. An up-to-date list of deposit programs with real terms from different banks can be found in BankSorter's deposit rankings, where data is updated regularly so you can see which banks have already responded to the NBU's decision. If flexibility matters more to you than a fixed term, it's also worth checking savings accounts, whose rates also often move in step with the key rate.
What This Means for Loans and Borrowers
For those who already have a variable-rate loan, or are planning to take one out, the news works the other way. More expensive funding for banks means new loans — consumer loans, cash loans, mortgages — will gradually become less favorable: higher interest rates mean higher monthly payments and greater total repayment over the life of the loan.
If you're planning a major purchase on credit in the near future, it makes sense to compare current offers now rather than postpone the decision hoping conditions will improve — based on the NBU's own commentary, the trend points in the opposite direction. It's convenient to do this through BankSorter's loan rankings, which gather current terms from different banks so you can compare the real cost of borrowing rather than rely on advertising promises.
What This Means for the Average Person, Right Now
In short: savers come out ahead, borrowers come out behind. That doesn't mean borrowing is now impossible — it means it's worth calculating more carefully. If you already have a fixed-rate loan, the NBU's decision doesn't directly affect you. If your rate is variable, it's worth checking with your bank on when and how the terms of your contract will be reviewed.
Those with spare cash should use this moment to review the terms of their current deposit — your bank may have already introduced a better offer for new customers while your existing deposit remains unchanged. Banks rarely raise rates retroactively on already-open deposits, so it's sometimes more advantageous to reopen a deposit under new terms than to wait for an automatic review.
What to Watch in the Coming Months
The NBU explicitly points to "intensifying medium-term pro-inflationary risks" — wording that typically precedes further rate hikes at upcoming board meetings if inflation doesn't start slowing. In the coming months, it's worth keeping an eye on:
- official NBU press releases following upcoming board meetings on the key policy rate;
- monthly inflation data from the State Statistics Service, which shapes market expectations for the regulator's next steps;
- updates to terms at your own bank — by subscribing to notifications or regularly checking the "deposits" section of your banking app;
- up-to-date rankings such as BankSorter, which make it easy to compare offers from different banks at a single point in time rather than calling each bank individually.
Summary
Raising the key policy rate to 16% is the NBU's response to inflation accelerating faster than the regulator itself expected. For savers, it's a chance to earn a higher return on their money; for borrowers, it's a signal to act more carefully and scrutinize the terms of any new loan. Either way, the best strategy right now is not to rely on old data or advertising promises, but to check current terms right before making a decision. Compare fresh offers in BankSorter's deposit rankings and loan rankings — it takes just a few minutes, but could save or earn you a meaningful amount over the coming year.