The NBU Has Sold Over $1 Billion a Week for 10 Weeks Straight
You have probably already heard about the key policy rate and the new 2,000-hryvnia banknote. What has gotten less attention is this: since mid-July 2026, the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) has been selling more than $1 billion a week on the interbank currency market to keep the hryvnia from falling sharply. In the week of 14-18 September alone, the regulator sold $1.231 billion — the tenth consecutive week at that scale. Since the start of 2026, the NBU has spent $36.29 billion on currency interventions, already more than in all of 2025.
Then, on 22 September, something quietly symbolic happened: the central bank loosened its grip slightly, and the official rate rose from 44.67 to 44.70 hryvnia per dollar, and from 51.19 to 51.36 per euro. On paper that is a rounding error, but for a market the regulator otherwise holds with an iron grip, it is a notable signal.
Why the NBU Is Burning Through Billions Every Week
This is not an attempt to fix the rate once and for all — the NBU officially operates under a "managed flexibility" regime. The idea is simple: the exchange rate is allowed to move gradually with supply and demand, but without the sharp swings that would undermine confidence in the hryvnia and fuel inflation expectations. When the market runs short of foreign currency, the central bank steps in and sells it from reserves to smooth out the swings.
And the market is running short in a big way. In the first eight months of 2026, Ukraine imported almost $40 billion more in goods than it exported. Commodity and finished-goods exports have themselves been sliding month over month: from $3.5 billion in June to $3.1 billion in July and $2.5 billion in August. In other words, the country is buying far more abroad than it sells — and someone has to bridge that gap with hard currency. That someone is the central bank.
It can afford to because of international reserves, which stood at $48.66 billion at the start of September. September aid disbursements, including €3.3 billion from the European Commission, replenished the buffer after an August dip. In effect, the NBU is converting Western financial aid into hryvnia and feeding it into the market to cover the currency shortfall facing businesses and households alike.
Can This Go On Forever?
No — and that is the central risk in all of this. Interventions on this scale depend directly on external financing. As long as partner disbursements keep arriving on schedule, reserves are replenished faster than they are spent, and the NBU can keep smoothing the rate. But that also means today's hryvnia stability rests not only on the domestic economy, but on political decisions made in Brussels, Washington and other capitals.
The central bank itself is well aware of this and has repeatedly said as much: the real measure of success for monetary policy in the second half of 2026 is not pinning the rate to a specific number, but gradually shrinking the scale of interventions without losing control of inflation. The slight easing of the hryvnia on 22 September can reasonably be read as a cautious first step in that direction — the regulator testing how the market reacts to a little more room to move before going further.
What This Means for Your Wallet
To the average bank customer, the interbank dollar rate can feel like a distant abstraction — until it touches your own decisions about savings, borrowing or everyday spending. Here is what is worth paying attention to right now.
Savings: hryvnia or foreign currency
While the NBU is actively managing the rate, a sharp hryvnia collapse is unlikely in the near term — the regulator has both the reserves and the tools to prevent one. At the same time, the underlying pressure has not gone away, so ignoring currency risk entirely would be unwise too. A sensible middle ground for most households is to keep part of an emergency buffer in high-yield hryvnia instruments (with the key rate at 16%, deposits and savings accounts currently pay genuinely meaningful interest), and part in foreign currency if you have a specific dollar- or euro-denominated goal. You can compare deposit terms across banks on BankSorter's best deposits page, while money you might need on short notice fits better in a savings account that does not lock funds away.
Loans: do not wait for cheaper hryvnia credit
Pressure on the currency market and an elevated key rate both point in the same direction — more expensive money for borrowers. As long as the NBU is spending reserves to hold the rate rather than to lower it, there is little reason to expect loan costs to drop sharply any time soon. If you need a loan now, it is worth comparing several banks rather than defaulting to the one where you already hold a current account — the gap in rates and fees between offers can be substantial. Current terms can be checked on BankSorter's best loans page.
Everyday spending and your current account
If you regularly pay by card abroad or receive part of your income in foreign currency, exchange-rate moves — even small ones like those on 22 September — chip away at your budget over time. It is a good moment to check whether your current account offers fair conversion rates and whether it hides fees on foreign-currency transactions. You can compare terms on BankSorter's best personal accounts page.
Practical Steps for the Weeks Ahead
- Do not panic-convert everything at once. The NBU is not allowing a sharp devaluation for now — the rate is moving in kopecks, not hryvnias.
- Watch the official NBU rate, not just exchange-office rates — the official rate and intervention volumes show the real pressure on the market.
- Diversify rather than guess. Splitting savings between hryvnia and foreign currency reduces the risk of betting wrong in either direction.
- Lock in a good deposit rate now — while the key rate is high, banks are offering attractive terms that may disappear once inflationary pressure eases.
- Check foreign-currency transaction fees on your current account if you regularly deal in foreign currency.
Summary
The stable hryvnia rate Ukrainians have grown used to in recent months is not the result of natural market equilibrium — it is the product of weekly, billion-dollar central bank interventions, financed in large part by Western aid. That works for as long as external financing keeps flowing, and it loses resilience the moment that financing slows. The practical takeaway for your personal budget: neither panic nor complacency is warranted. Use this period of relative stability to put your own finances in order — compare current deposit, savings and loan terms on BankSorter and choose an option that can withstand both a calm and a turbulent path for the exchange rate.